New position papers? Suspicious
Reports have recently come along saying that the government is set to release a number of position papers - documents that will explain the government's starting assumptions, desired outcomes, red lines and possible areas of compromise for Brexit topics - in the coming weeks.
But is this really all it seems? After all, we've seen clearly that the government is divided on a number of key issues with blows between ministers and factions being traded on the front pages of national newspapers. How can this square up with the publishing of position papers, documents that should in theory set out clearly defined, unified approaches to Brexit negotiations and which ministers will be expected to defend?
To answer that, here are some possibilities to explain what's going on.
1. Maybe we've vastly underestimated the capability of the government and, despite all evidence to the contrary, they've internally thrashed out their differences and reached a number of set positions that they are all comfortable with. The fact that they would have apparently done this in a matter of weeks and whilst on holiday means that this theory really requires us to suspend our disbelief. Just possibly some sort of truce has been brokered, though it's doubtful that it could last long even if this is the case.
2. Far from being the produce of an orderly and unified government, publishing these position papers may be an attempt to create artificial unity. By setting an 'established' line for different questions (whether customs union, transition period, border in Ireland etc) government ministers will be forced into either accepting these terms or resigning. This would mean that the position papers are not really about Brexit but have instead been produced to force discipline on a divided cabinet. Such an action would not be unusual for Theresa May's 'command and control' style of 'leadership'. The risk, of course, is that the Prime Minister could over extend her authority and try to impose too much, meaning that some ministers really would resign and risking the fall of the government as a whole. Position papers may be kept vague in order to avoid this, but then you'd have to ask whether it achieved the main goal of producing unity at all.
3. This rush of position papers is a panicked reaction to the EU's view that not enough progress has been made on key issues and so it will not be possible to start discussions in Autumn on any future EU-UK relationship. By publishing this position papers the government may be hoping it can nudge the EU into starting those discussions after all. The reality is that just publishing position papers without any real discussion would be unlikely to have this effect, but the government may feel under pressure, particularly as accusations grow that the Brexit negotiations are being botched at every turn.
Whichever of these scenarios is the closest to the truth, the position papers are unlikely to solve any of the major problems that are facing the government right now. More worryingly, these position papers seem to have been rushed out in the face of criticism, rather than carefully produced off the back of broad consensus.
If these position papers say little then Brexit negotiations will rumble on without much progress as before. If they say a lot and in great detail, they will almost certainly cause controversy and could exacerbate the divisions within the government.
But is this really all it seems? After all, we've seen clearly that the government is divided on a number of key issues with blows between ministers and factions being traded on the front pages of national newspapers. How can this square up with the publishing of position papers, documents that should in theory set out clearly defined, unified approaches to Brexit negotiations and which ministers will be expected to defend?
To answer that, here are some possibilities to explain what's going on.
1. Maybe we've vastly underestimated the capability of the government and, despite all evidence to the contrary, they've internally thrashed out their differences and reached a number of set positions that they are all comfortable with. The fact that they would have apparently done this in a matter of weeks and whilst on holiday means that this theory really requires us to suspend our disbelief. Just possibly some sort of truce has been brokered, though it's doubtful that it could last long even if this is the case.
2. Far from being the produce of an orderly and unified government, publishing these position papers may be an attempt to create artificial unity. By setting an 'established' line for different questions (whether customs union, transition period, border in Ireland etc) government ministers will be forced into either accepting these terms or resigning. This would mean that the position papers are not really about Brexit but have instead been produced to force discipline on a divided cabinet. Such an action would not be unusual for Theresa May's 'command and control' style of 'leadership'. The risk, of course, is that the Prime Minister could over extend her authority and try to impose too much, meaning that some ministers really would resign and risking the fall of the government as a whole. Position papers may be kept vague in order to avoid this, but then you'd have to ask whether it achieved the main goal of producing unity at all.
3. This rush of position papers is a panicked reaction to the EU's view that not enough progress has been made on key issues and so it will not be possible to start discussions in Autumn on any future EU-UK relationship. By publishing this position papers the government may be hoping it can nudge the EU into starting those discussions after all. The reality is that just publishing position papers without any real discussion would be unlikely to have this effect, but the government may feel under pressure, particularly as accusations grow that the Brexit negotiations are being botched at every turn.
Whichever of these scenarios is the closest to the truth, the position papers are unlikely to solve any of the major problems that are facing the government right now. More worryingly, these position papers seem to have been rushed out in the face of criticism, rather than carefully produced off the back of broad consensus.
If these position papers say little then Brexit negotiations will rumble on without much progress as before. If they say a lot and in great detail, they will almost certainly cause controversy and could exacerbate the divisions within the government.
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