Russian interference: yes but no
"Yes but no", or to elaborate, yes it is very likely that Russia carried out operations through social media in order to encourage division, polarisation and to push the result of the EU referendum a certain way, but no it's not likely that Russian actions were able to decide the result.
Social scientists have spent decades investigating the effects of traditional mass media on voter preferences. Yet even with all this time and data, it has proven difficult to determine just how much influence the media can exert and many argue convincingly that the effect is marginal. It is simply not possible for us to have any certainty about how much influence social media has on the way people vote. Even if Russia had effectively taken over our social media platforms, we're not certain how much influence that would give them.
Some may respond to this by arguing that even a small effect can be decisive and that for this reason, we can proclaim that Russia determined the result in order to match its own preferences. And yes, in a tight race a small effect can tip the result one way or the other, but Russian interference was not the only effect at work. A whole variety of factors were involved in delivering the result of the EU referendum and any one of them could be regarded as "decisive". To give a few examples: a poor Remain campaign, the previous years of austerity, the long-term disconnection of Labour from the working class, the exploitation of weak data protections by Leave, flows of money to Leave from the international hard right, the focus on immigration by Leave, that one moment Dominic Cummings avoided being sacked from the campaign because many MPs despised him, etc.
Yes, Russian interference could have been "decisive", or maybe not, maybe the vote would have given the same result anyway. Unfortunately, we do not have an alternate universe to use as a control experiment so we cannot be certain.
We can be certain about two things. The first is that foreign interference in our democratic procedures is an unacceptable compromise of our country's integrity and must be fully investigated through a Parliamentary inquiry. We deserve to know the scale of interference, regardless of its effect on the vote's result.
The second thing we can be certain of is that Russia is not the only foreign agent to have tried to secretly push the referendum result. Disaster capitalists (mainly American), those who seek to benefit personally from countries undergoing financial collapses, knew that a Brexit UK would make for ripe pickings. They did not hesitate from funnelling resources to pro-Brexit individuals and campaigns. For this reason, the inquiry should not just look at Russia, but at all foreign interference in the referendum.
Russian interference must be treated seriously but losing perspective will only obscure the other forces at work.
Some may respond to this by arguing that even a small effect can be decisive and that for this reason, we can proclaim that Russia determined the result in order to match its own preferences. And yes, in a tight race a small effect can tip the result one way or the other, but Russian interference was not the only effect at work. A whole variety of factors were involved in delivering the result of the EU referendum and any one of them could be regarded as "decisive". To give a few examples: a poor Remain campaign, the previous years of austerity, the long-term disconnection of Labour from the working class, the exploitation of weak data protections by Leave, flows of money to Leave from the international hard right, the focus on immigration by Leave, that one moment Dominic Cummings avoided being sacked from the campaign because many MPs despised him, etc.
Yes, Russian interference could have been "decisive", or maybe not, maybe the vote would have given the same result anyway. Unfortunately, we do not have an alternate universe to use as a control experiment so we cannot be certain.
We can be certain about two things. The first is that foreign interference in our democratic procedures is an unacceptable compromise of our country's integrity and must be fully investigated through a Parliamentary inquiry. We deserve to know the scale of interference, regardless of its effect on the vote's result.
The second thing we can be certain of is that Russia is not the only foreign agent to have tried to secretly push the referendum result. Disaster capitalists (mainly American), those who seek to benefit personally from countries undergoing financial collapses, knew that a Brexit UK would make for ripe pickings. They did not hesitate from funnelling resources to pro-Brexit individuals and campaigns. For this reason, the inquiry should not just look at Russia, but at all foreign interference in the referendum.
Russian interference must be treated seriously but losing perspective will only obscure the other forces at work.
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