Gove sounds death knell sounds for post-Brexit trade delusion
Two important statements have come out today that should put to rest the Brexit fantasies of free market fundamentalists and the idea that Brexit will lead the UK to embrace a whole range of new free trade agreements across the world. The best part is that the statements were delivered by ardent Brexiteer Michael Gove, likely with little idea about how his admissions uncover the Brexit lies.
The first was that the UK would not pursue unilateral free trade - the concept of implementing zero tariffs for everyone, regardless of whether they reciprocate. This means that in the absence of written free trade deals, the UK will be putting up barriers to trade, in line with WTO rules. As Brexit will lead to the loss of dozens of existing trade deals that the EU has negotiated for its members, this will result in a sharp and sudden reduction in trade if the UK leaves the EU. The economic impact will be unambiguous and negative.
While some had sustained the fantasy that the UK would not have to worry about the fact that trade agreements take a long time to negotiate and could instantly emerge as a global free trading power, Gove has put paid to the idea that this (in reality immensely reckless) policy would even be tried. This means that post-Brexit the UK will be facing much higher trade barriers than it does now and will be staring down the barrel of a decades-long process in tortuous negotiations, likely requiring the UK to do a lot more giving than taking, just to try and get back to where we are now.
The government has no real choice here of course. The economic consequences of unilateral free trade would be devastating for many of the communities that supported Brexit in the first place. Nonetheless the fact yet another piece of the Brexit lie is revealed is significant. Whatever some may have believed previously, Brexit will result in less free trade not more and "Global Britain" will be closing in on itself for some time to come.
The second key statement was that if the US tried to insist that the UK allow chlorinated chicken into its market as part of a free trade deal, then the UK government would simply block such a deal. Though it is clear that public opinion is hostile to any trade deal with the US that would involve lowering standards (the UK public being accustomed to European norms), the result of saying no would not be that the US would give way and give us better terms, the result would be no deal at all. In the face of public opposition, the fantasy that the UK could quickly and rapidly pivot from strong ties with the EU to strong ties the US has fallen flat.
Such a policy, largely inevitable given the views among the UK electorate, further means that post-Brexit trade negotiations can be expected to drag on over a number of years, in some cases possibly even failing completely.
With his statements, Gove has inadvertently revealed that instead of unleashing some imagined British lion to prowl the savannah for the choicest meats, Brexit will look more like an elderly fat cat being kicked out the door and left to meander in the street looking for some rotting fish to get by.
The first was that the UK would not pursue unilateral free trade - the concept of implementing zero tariffs for everyone, regardless of whether they reciprocate. This means that in the absence of written free trade deals, the UK will be putting up barriers to trade, in line with WTO rules. As Brexit will lead to the loss of dozens of existing trade deals that the EU has negotiated for its members, this will result in a sharp and sudden reduction in trade if the UK leaves the EU. The economic impact will be unambiguous and negative.
While some had sustained the fantasy that the UK would not have to worry about the fact that trade agreements take a long time to negotiate and could instantly emerge as a global free trading power, Gove has put paid to the idea that this (in reality immensely reckless) policy would even be tried. This means that post-Brexit the UK will be facing much higher trade barriers than it does now and will be staring down the barrel of a decades-long process in tortuous negotiations, likely requiring the UK to do a lot more giving than taking, just to try and get back to where we are now.
The government has no real choice here of course. The economic consequences of unilateral free trade would be devastating for many of the communities that supported Brexit in the first place. Nonetheless the fact yet another piece of the Brexit lie is revealed is significant. Whatever some may have believed previously, Brexit will result in less free trade not more and "Global Britain" will be closing in on itself for some time to come.
The second key statement was that if the US tried to insist that the UK allow chlorinated chicken into its market as part of a free trade deal, then the UK government would simply block such a deal. Though it is clear that public opinion is hostile to any trade deal with the US that would involve lowering standards (the UK public being accustomed to European norms), the result of saying no would not be that the US would give way and give us better terms, the result would be no deal at all. In the face of public opposition, the fantasy that the UK could quickly and rapidly pivot from strong ties with the EU to strong ties the US has fallen flat.
Such a policy, largely inevitable given the views among the UK electorate, further means that post-Brexit trade negotiations can be expected to drag on over a number of years, in some cases possibly even failing completely.
With his statements, Gove has inadvertently revealed that instead of unleashing some imagined British lion to prowl the savannah for the choicest meats, Brexit will look more like an elderly fat cat being kicked out the door and left to meander in the street looking for some rotting fish to get by.
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