Comments on the latest Eurobarometer numbers

Latest Eurobarometer was published recently and my Twitter thread on the matter was relatively popular so re-posting those thoughts here for those who prefer to read in blog format.

I have been pretty critical of the way polling data is (or is not) used when discussing European politics so going to do my own thread here on latest Eurobarometer, published this week:

Some looked at these numbers and made a lot of noise about 'immigration' and 'terrorism' being listed as the two main concerns at the EU level.

What they were less clear about was the extent to which 1) this has been the case for years and is not a recent move (therefore not so easy to link directly to recent populist wins) and 2) the position of these issues has been falling

The other big point that they miss is that 'immigration' for most Europeans does distinguish between intra-EU and extra-EU movement. Immigration in this context often refers to concern about influx of people from outside the EU - very different to state of UK debate

We know this thanks to two pieces of info.

Firstly, while immigration is listed first at EU level, it drops to third when listing concerns at national level.

Why would immigration suddenly drop in salience if intra-EU migration is seen as a problem? If your conception of immigration does not distinguish between EU and non-EU then it should be just as salient at the national level as it is at the European one.

(As far as the trend for national issues goes, there's a consistent shift in focus towards social-economic issues: immigration and unemployment are down, while healthcare, social security and pensions are up)

The other key piece of info is simply the continuing massive popularity of EU Freedom of Movement - 82% in favour

It's literally just above peace for 'most positive result of the EU' - Free Movement isn't just popular, it's *the* most popular thing the EU has done.

Anyone who says there is a great appetite for undermining the principle of FoM is crazy.

Europeans very clearly distinguish between EU and non-EU migration and take a very positive view towards EU FoM and the rights and freedoms of EU citizenship that is basically unrelated to their concerns over recent increases in non-EU arrivals.

Meanwhile, support for the euro is also strong, returning to the historical average across the EU and reaching new highs within the eurozone itself.

People's view of the European economic situation is continuing to improve, following a consistent path over the last few years.

Some like to highlight the differences between member states on such questions, but ignore how public opinion is broadly moving in the same direction

Malta is an outlier with -10 for Good, but otherwise the range is from -3 to +8 for Good.

There is the same picture for the national level view of the economy; continuing to move in a positive direction over a number of years

Big differences in starting point (the Netherlands is 93% Good while Greece is 98% Bad) hide how European public opinion tends to move together.

Malta again an outlier at -7 (must admit I don't know why Malta is so negative on this) and then a range of -4 to +10.

The EU continues to maintain an overall positive image among the general public.

And while Europeans don't trust political institutions much in general, they trust the EU more than national governments or parliaments.

So, what do we take away from all this?

1. Immigration and terrorism are still big issues for Europeans, but their salience is falling

2. Immigration, for most Europeans, means non-EU immigration. FoM is very popular

3. EU institutions are more trusted than national ones, even if the context is that no political institutions in Europe hold much trust at all

4. Public opinion has different starting points in different member states, but it tends to move together in one direction

5. Broadly people believe things are getting better and their view of the EU is on the up

6. The danger for EU is not general European opinion, but concentrations of negative views in certain states