Leaving the EU will destroy trust in our democracy
We repeatedly hear that it's essential to 'get Brexit done' in order to sustain trust in UK democracy. We are led to believe that if we don't leave the EU then people will no longer believe that change can come about in this country through the ballot box and that their votes do not count. This is a deeply flawed argument for a simple reason: the assumption that leaving the EU will itself have no negative impact on trust in democracy is both unproven and wrong.
The most obvious source of public anger and disappointment will be when everyone discovers that having finally 'got Brexit done', Brexit turns out to not be done at all. People will have decided to accept just about anything on the promise that Brexit will go away and that they will be allowed to focus on other issues. So when it turns out that Brexit is still on the news every day, how will people feel?
Even if the Withdrawal Agreement is rammed through Parliament at record speed, the 'saboteurs' finally vanquished, Brexit will be far from over. Instead we will simply move on to Phase 2 of Brexit - negotiating what kind of arrangement we believe should define our relationship with the EU once we have stopped being a member. And this will not be an easy debate. There will be many complex factors to consider. Different business groups will be lobbying for different interests. Questions of regulatory alignment or divergence will be front and centre - are we aspiring to be a social-democratic paradise or a Singapore-on-Thames? How will different outcomes affect our tax revenues (and therefore public spending)? Are we prepared to accept the trade-offs in sovereignty that come with highly integrated trade in services? And that's just on a trade deal with the EU, let alone repeating all these debates in our desperate rush to replace all the trade deals that we had as EU members but which we will have lost after leaving. Brexit will continue to cut across every part of our political life.
And faced with such high stakes and existential questions, who really believes that this debate would be calm and respectful? Far from removing the poison and division the Brexit debate has created so far, actually leaving the EU and going into the next part of the project would only make these things worse. Even now, we can be certain that those who believe that we should prioritise trade with the EU (our biggest economic partner) over trade with the US will be accused of 'betraying' Brexit. Indeed just about any pro-European position, no matter how timid, will still be met with the same declarations of 'treason' and 'betrayal' that they are now. The poison of this national discourse will only continue to flow round and round the body politic.
This first point is a simple matter of unavoidable fact. And we can be sure it will be bad enough on its own. If it then also turns out then the pro-Europeans were right about the negative impact of Brexit, then the hollowing out of faith in British democracy will be even worse. A slowdown in economic growth and investment. A continued lack of investment. Deregulation of workers' rights. A growing divide between our cities and towns. An immigration policy that is neither open to the world nor protective of British workers. A loss of power and influence on the global stage. The continued presence of EU law (then as a result of the EU's economic power rather than as an effect of EU membership). Trade deals with far away countries that are lower quality and which deliver few economic benefits.
Politicians often lie in order to win elections and are often over-enthusiastic in their estimations of how positive the impact of a certain policy will be. To an extent, people are used to this in democracies (partly explaining the existing sense of disillusion in politics that was present in the 2016 referendum). But, rarely would politicians have lied on such a scale and on such a long-term (and difficult to reverse) decision. In the case of Brexit, the difference between promise and reality would be an order of magnitude the public is entirely unprepared for.
If we do leave the EU, we will not experience a great celebration of the democratic process. What will be uncovered over days and weeks and months is that the way leading advocates in Parliament and in the media have built up Brexit is entirely false. Where people were told negotiations would be easy, they will be hard. Where people were told that Brexit would be put behind us, it will continue to fill up our daily lives. Where people were told their living standards would go up, they will go down. Where people were told money will overflow for new investment, there will be cuts to compensate for lost growth. Can anyone really believe this won't decimate trust in democracy? I cannot.
If this sounds downbeat then that's not surprising. The solution to this is far from obvious. Possibly the only way to avoid it entirely would be to be honest that Leaving will mean economic costs and a further decade of shaping our discussion and policy-decisions around the debate on our place in Europe. For some that may still be worthwhile. For others not. In either case, it would mean taking a decision with our eyes open about the consequences. If that scenario sounds unlikely, then we are headed for a much longer process of societal healing, one that will require - among other things - a near-complete refresh of our political leadership so that we can have a collective new start.
Image via Flickr
The most obvious source of public anger and disappointment will be when everyone discovers that having finally 'got Brexit done', Brexit turns out to not be done at all. People will have decided to accept just about anything on the promise that Brexit will go away and that they will be allowed to focus on other issues. So when it turns out that Brexit is still on the news every day, how will people feel?
Even if the Withdrawal Agreement is rammed through Parliament at record speed, the 'saboteurs' finally vanquished, Brexit will be far from over. Instead we will simply move on to Phase 2 of Brexit - negotiating what kind of arrangement we believe should define our relationship with the EU once we have stopped being a member. And this will not be an easy debate. There will be many complex factors to consider. Different business groups will be lobbying for different interests. Questions of regulatory alignment or divergence will be front and centre - are we aspiring to be a social-democratic paradise or a Singapore-on-Thames? How will different outcomes affect our tax revenues (and therefore public spending)? Are we prepared to accept the trade-offs in sovereignty that come with highly integrated trade in services? And that's just on a trade deal with the EU, let alone repeating all these debates in our desperate rush to replace all the trade deals that we had as EU members but which we will have lost after leaving. Brexit will continue to cut across every part of our political life.
And faced with such high stakes and existential questions, who really believes that this debate would be calm and respectful? Far from removing the poison and division the Brexit debate has created so far, actually leaving the EU and going into the next part of the project would only make these things worse. Even now, we can be certain that those who believe that we should prioritise trade with the EU (our biggest economic partner) over trade with the US will be accused of 'betraying' Brexit. Indeed just about any pro-European position, no matter how timid, will still be met with the same declarations of 'treason' and 'betrayal' that they are now. The poison of this national discourse will only continue to flow round and round the body politic.
This first point is a simple matter of unavoidable fact. And we can be sure it will be bad enough on its own. If it then also turns out then the pro-Europeans were right about the negative impact of Brexit, then the hollowing out of faith in British democracy will be even worse. A slowdown in economic growth and investment. A continued lack of investment. Deregulation of workers' rights. A growing divide between our cities and towns. An immigration policy that is neither open to the world nor protective of British workers. A loss of power and influence on the global stage. The continued presence of EU law (then as a result of the EU's economic power rather than as an effect of EU membership). Trade deals with far away countries that are lower quality and which deliver few economic benefits.
Politicians often lie in order to win elections and are often over-enthusiastic in their estimations of how positive the impact of a certain policy will be. To an extent, people are used to this in democracies (partly explaining the existing sense of disillusion in politics that was present in the 2016 referendum). But, rarely would politicians have lied on such a scale and on such a long-term (and difficult to reverse) decision. In the case of Brexit, the difference between promise and reality would be an order of magnitude the public is entirely unprepared for.
If we do leave the EU, we will not experience a great celebration of the democratic process. What will be uncovered over days and weeks and months is that the way leading advocates in Parliament and in the media have built up Brexit is entirely false. Where people were told negotiations would be easy, they will be hard. Where people were told that Brexit would be put behind us, it will continue to fill up our daily lives. Where people were told their living standards would go up, they will go down. Where people were told money will overflow for new investment, there will be cuts to compensate for lost growth. Can anyone really believe this won't decimate trust in democracy? I cannot.
If this sounds downbeat then that's not surprising. The solution to this is far from obvious. Possibly the only way to avoid it entirely would be to be honest that Leaving will mean economic costs and a further decade of shaping our discussion and policy-decisions around the debate on our place in Europe. For some that may still be worthwhile. For others not. In either case, it would mean taking a decision with our eyes open about the consequences. If that scenario sounds unlikely, then we are headed for a much longer process of societal healing, one that will require - among other things - a near-complete refresh of our political leadership so that we can have a collective new start.
Image via Flickr
This has to be one of the best, most clinical, resumes around the Brexit Project and its effect on UK democracy now and for the future. Should be required daily reading in every household until Brexit is Gone.
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