Making the new Commission work
On 1st December the new Commission will take office. After a battle between Parliament and Council, a tight vote to approve Ursula von der Leyen's position as Commission President, three Commissioner candidates being rejected, a one month delay in the timetable, a last-minute political shift for one Commissioner and a more comfortable vote to approve the Commission as a whole, the new set of Commissioners will start their functions for the next five years.
However, though the pieces should all now be in place, the general consensus is still that the new Commission will face severe difficulties. Von der Leyen is considered to be fairly weak as a President (certainly no repeat of Juncker) and reliant on the support of her Executive Vice-Presidents: Timmermans (Dutch Social Democrat), Vestager (Danish Social Liberal) and Dombrovskis (Latvian Conservative). She will need each of these VPs to make sure she can gain the required support from the European Parliament for key pieces of legislation, both at a political and geographic level. Meanwhile winning the confidence of national leaders and ministers won't be any easier. Though it was national governments who elevated von der Leyen to her position, they feel little loyalty or attachment to her.
So is this doomed to be an ineffective and lame-duck Commission from the start? It could be, it's hard to know how exactly von der Leyen will approach these challenges. But here are a few ideas on what could work.
Make your Executive VPs a tight-knit group
Without the ability to assert her own personal authority, von der Leyen will need to make sure that the collective group formed by her and the Executive Vice-Presidents can. For this to work they will all need to be on the same message. Regular coordination meetings (possibly every morning) will be necessary to make sure everyone is consistently on the same page. Differences of opinion will need to be hammered out in private between the four of them - this will mean accepting compromises as whatever von der Leyen needs to give up in private won't be nearly as damaging as a public fight.
Between Parliament and Council, be pragmatic
Neither the European Parliament nor the Council intends to be particularly loyal to or supportive of the new Commission. But rather than seeing this as a constraint, von der Leyen should embrace the freedom this gives her to engage in political manoeuvring. Most Commission Presidents are locked in fairly early on to one institution or the other. Von der Leyen will have the possibility of moving between them, opting to tip the balance in the Parliament or in the Council's favour as best suits her. At a time of particularly intense rivalry between Parliament and Council, this could be a very viable strategy. Neither institution will be loyal to her, so best to not worry about being loyal to them. That said, it will be a fine line to tread. Pragmatism and independence can easily be seen as being two-faced and deceitful. Though she will need to be willing to shift between the institutions as she angles to pass key legislation, she will also need to maintain a degree of transparency in these shifts in order to avoid making anyone feel betrayed.
Focus on coordination, not control
Here again, the key message is not to fight against what you can't change. The new set of Commissioners will have much greater, perhaps unprecedented, levels of power and autonomy in relation to the President. Trying to keep a tight hold on them all will be a massive waste of time and resources for von der Leyen, most likely only serving to highlight her weakness. The best approach will be simply to let them each get on and do their job but keeping on eye on making sure that they don't actively conflict with one another. If it looks like two Commissioners might be set to lock horns, that's when von der Leyen will need to step in to assert her authority and broker a compromise. In addition, promoting horizontal cooperation between the Commissioners should help avoid potential clashes by bringing to light differences in priorities at an early stage and it is to be commended that von der Leyen marked out which Commissioners should collaborate on different headline projects in each of the mission letters to the new Commissioners.
Plan for crises
Any politician, no matter how strong they may seem, can be undone if they are overwhelmed by an unexpected crisis. The risks are particularly high for politicians that don't even have the benefit of being in a strong position to start with. Inevitably it is tricky to actually plan for crises until you know what they are but the best you can do is to leave the institutional space to deal with them when they strike. In other words, be wary of overloading on legislation or overstretching your resources. It won't guarantee a perfect response but it can at least give you a fighting chance.
There's no doubt that von der Leyen is in an unenviable position. Navigating the next five years will be hard but importantly it won't be impossible. It is unlikely this term will be a great success but if von der Leyen can at least survive it with some successes, then it could set her up for a more impressive run in 2024-9.
Image via Flickr
However, though the pieces should all now be in place, the general consensus is still that the new Commission will face severe difficulties. Von der Leyen is considered to be fairly weak as a President (certainly no repeat of Juncker) and reliant on the support of her Executive Vice-Presidents: Timmermans (Dutch Social Democrat), Vestager (Danish Social Liberal) and Dombrovskis (Latvian Conservative). She will need each of these VPs to make sure she can gain the required support from the European Parliament for key pieces of legislation, both at a political and geographic level. Meanwhile winning the confidence of national leaders and ministers won't be any easier. Though it was national governments who elevated von der Leyen to her position, they feel little loyalty or attachment to her.
So is this doomed to be an ineffective and lame-duck Commission from the start? It could be, it's hard to know how exactly von der Leyen will approach these challenges. But here are a few ideas on what could work.
Make your Executive VPs a tight-knit group
Without the ability to assert her own personal authority, von der Leyen will need to make sure that the collective group formed by her and the Executive Vice-Presidents can. For this to work they will all need to be on the same message. Regular coordination meetings (possibly every morning) will be necessary to make sure everyone is consistently on the same page. Differences of opinion will need to be hammered out in private between the four of them - this will mean accepting compromises as whatever von der Leyen needs to give up in private won't be nearly as damaging as a public fight.
Between Parliament and Council, be pragmatic
Neither the European Parliament nor the Council intends to be particularly loyal to or supportive of the new Commission. But rather than seeing this as a constraint, von der Leyen should embrace the freedom this gives her to engage in political manoeuvring. Most Commission Presidents are locked in fairly early on to one institution or the other. Von der Leyen will have the possibility of moving between them, opting to tip the balance in the Parliament or in the Council's favour as best suits her. At a time of particularly intense rivalry between Parliament and Council, this could be a very viable strategy. Neither institution will be loyal to her, so best to not worry about being loyal to them. That said, it will be a fine line to tread. Pragmatism and independence can easily be seen as being two-faced and deceitful. Though she will need to be willing to shift between the institutions as she angles to pass key legislation, she will also need to maintain a degree of transparency in these shifts in order to avoid making anyone feel betrayed.
Focus on coordination, not control
Here again, the key message is not to fight against what you can't change. The new set of Commissioners will have much greater, perhaps unprecedented, levels of power and autonomy in relation to the President. Trying to keep a tight hold on them all will be a massive waste of time and resources for von der Leyen, most likely only serving to highlight her weakness. The best approach will be simply to let them each get on and do their job but keeping on eye on making sure that they don't actively conflict with one another. If it looks like two Commissioners might be set to lock horns, that's when von der Leyen will need to step in to assert her authority and broker a compromise. In addition, promoting horizontal cooperation between the Commissioners should help avoid potential clashes by bringing to light differences in priorities at an early stage and it is to be commended that von der Leyen marked out which Commissioners should collaborate on different headline projects in each of the mission letters to the new Commissioners.
Plan for crises
Any politician, no matter how strong they may seem, can be undone if they are overwhelmed by an unexpected crisis. The risks are particularly high for politicians that don't even have the benefit of being in a strong position to start with. Inevitably it is tricky to actually plan for crises until you know what they are but the best you can do is to leave the institutional space to deal with them when they strike. In other words, be wary of overloading on legislation or overstretching your resources. It won't guarantee a perfect response but it can at least give you a fighting chance.
There's no doubt that von der Leyen is in an unenviable position. Navigating the next five years will be hard but importantly it won't be impossible. It is unlikely this term will be a great success but if von der Leyen can at least survive it with some successes, then it could set her up for a more impressive run in 2024-9.
Image via Flickr
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