The EU narrowly avoids disaster in the South-East

It's safe to say not many people were following this week's elections in the small country of North Macedonia, home to just over 2 million people. The two main opposing blocs, SDSM–BESA and VMRO-DPMNE, are nothing more than alphabet soup to most people outside the country. But in spite of this, this election had the potential to be the final block to pull down the Jenga tower that is the EU's strategy for integrating the countries of the former Yugoslavia into the European sphere and, ultimately, into the EU.

The EU hasn't had much luck in the Western Balkans, the common term for the remaining non-EU ex-Yugoslav states plus Albania. In Serbia, the government takes an increasingly authoritarian line, fomenting ethnic divisions in the region and trying to repress democratic opposition. The situation is so bad that most of the opposition boycotted the last elections on the premise that they would not be free or fair. The boycott did reduce turnout but it's hard to see that anyone internationally cared and has left the Serb government with near-total control of the Serb Parliament. Neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina, home to one the most fragile and complex constitutional systems in the world, has been the main victim of increased Serb assertiveness. As the government in Belgrade becomes more illiberal, it also promotes the separatism of the ethnic Serb part of Bosnia and Herzegovina, giving assistance to those who deny the crimes committed in the wars of the 90s and pushing the multi-national state to collapse. From inside the EU, even Croatia has seen its ruling party HDZ, which also recently won re-election, become more authoritarian and more involved in ethnic disputes.

Indeed the very reason an election has been held in North Macedonia is because of the EU's mismanagement of its affairs in the Western Balkans. Having invested so much political capital into meaningful reforms and hard-fought agreements, the North Macedonian government was left out in the cold when France vetoed the start of accession negotiations in October last year. Slapped in the face and shot of credibility, North Macedonia's Prime Minister Zoran Zaev felt he had no choice but to seek a fresh mandate. If Zaev had lost then it would have been yet another country in the Western Balkans to be taken over by nationalists who have little interest in democracy, will happily aggravate tensions with neighbours and who have only a transactional interest in the EU. 

So it was a relief in Brussels when on Wednesday the reformist Social Democrats, along with some smaller partners (SDSM-BESA), were able to narrowly win the election over the much more populist and nationalist VMRO-DPMNE. It will be a tough negotiation with minority parties to actually form a government but the country will stick to its current path. The name change agreement, negotiated with Greece to finally unblock North Macedonia's accession to the EU and NATO, will be safe. Less well-known, a friendship declaration between Bulgaria and North Macedonia, which the nationalists claim rehabilitates Bulgaria's 1941-44 fascist regime, will also be left untouched. 

For now the EU has managed to get away with its mistakes. But it should not assume it will get any more chances. Sadly the odds of a major rethink are unlikely for now. Too often the EU's dealings with the governments and powers in this region amount to a simple transaction. The partner describes its very deep commitment to membership of the EU and its European values and in return the EU hands over the money. Insisting that countries actually live up to their words never really figures into the picture.

It's an arrangement that works for both sides. A number of EU governments don't really want these new states to join, fearing that their domestic voters are suffering from expansion fatigue. The Commission is too scared of Russia or China moving in to actually pull the plug on support. And many of the parties in this region are more than happy to line their pockets with EU funds. When the Serb government heavily promotes the assistance it receives from Russia or China but more or less ignores the (much more substantial) aid coming from the EU, it's hard not to conclude that the EU is being taken for a ride. And so, as with Poland and Hungary inside the bloc, in the Western Balkans the EU ends up working against itself, sustaining illiberal and anti-democratic regimes who will actually undermine the EU. 

A major break from this situation would likely require a much more political and active foreign policy - quite different from the Commission papers and unanimous votes that currently characterise EU foreign affairs today. It's hard to see this change coming anytime soon.

What is perhaps more realistic is for the EU to be better in taking sides. If not opposing the authoritarians, at least tipping the scales in favour of the reformists: money, organisers, advice, even public statements. After all, if you want something done, best do it yourself - the Russians and the Chinese won't worry themselves over the ethics of getting involved in the politics and elections of the Western Balkans. 

To correct the EU's failing policy in the region will need a lot of work. EU governments voting to approve negotiations on North Macedonia's accession to the EU would be a good start.

Image via Flickr