What is the worth of the EU's promise to Ukraine?

It was only a couple weeks ago that talk was circulating of a fracturing Western alliance. Seeing the obstructionism from some countries in expanding sanctions on Russia and worrying that arms deliveries were not advancing quickly enough, the idea took hold that the West's unity in supporting Ukraine's fight against the Russian invasion was faltering. This week underscored just how premature such ideas were. 

After being criticised for not having visited Kyiv already, France's Macron, Germany's Scholz and Italy's Draghi (along with Romania's Iohannis) jointly came to the Ukrainian capital in a show of European support and solidarity for the country. Macron declared that Europe will stand with Ukraine until it has achieved victory, with diplomatic sources saying they supported Ukraine retaking all the territory lost to Russia, including the land lost in 2014. 

Concretely, aside from further promises of financial support and military equipment, the leaders of the EU's three largest states all threw their weight behind EU candidate status for Ukraine. This joint position has made it much more likely that next week's summit of EU leaders will give formal approval to the idea, knocking down typical sceptics of enlargement (notably France and Germany themselves) and applying pressure on the remaining holdouts (with the Netherlands apparently already shifting). 

In the midst of bombs and missiles, it may be tempting to dismiss this as nothing more than a sequence of hollow words. After all, few hold any illusions around the reality of actually joining the EU. Candidate status, while necessary, is a long way from being some kind of conveyor belt taking you directly into the club. Ukraine will need to undertake many reforms of its economic and political system, finding solutions for enduring problems of corruption and the rule of law. 

And though Ukraine is likely up to the challenge and will hugely benefit from the successful completion of these reforms, even jumping through the right hoops is not always a guarantee of EU accession. Just ask North Macedonia, which went so far as to change the country's name in order to resolve a long-running dispute with Greece, but still has yet to start actual accession negotiations - some 17 years after its EU candidate status was approved.

But to dismiss the announcement in Kyiv out of hand would be to miss the significance of this event on not just one, but two fronts.

First, there is the symbolic value. To fully understand this point, we have to return to the origins of the conflict - not the February 2022 invasion, but Russia's attack on Eastern Ukraine in 2014. 

What pushed Russia to carry out this senseless aggression seven years ago? It certainly wasn't the potential for NATO membership - that was firmly off the table and even the Ukrainian government was taking steps away from that goal. And it wasn't any kind of threat to Russian speakers in the region - not only is this simple Russian propaganda, but also the President at the time - Viktor Yanukovych - has Russian and Belarusian heritage. 

Instead, it was the negotiation of the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement that was deemed unacceptable to Moscow. While a long way from anything like EU membership, the Association Agreement marked a decision by Ukrainians to pursue greater independence from Russia, emphasising their identity as European, not Russian or ex-Soviet. Russia, which has never really come to terms with the idea of Ukraine as a free and independent nation, responded by threatening a massive trade embargo. The Ukrainian government felt forced to back down and was ready to terminate the deal with the EU. Yet ordinary Ukrainians were not so willing to give in to Putin's blackmail and took to the streets as part of the Euromaidan protests. 

Indeed, these origins in a dispute over the identity and future of Ukraine are precisely why the protests took on their name and why the EU flag featured so prominently during those days in Kyiv. When the government fell and it looked like Ukraine was going to pivot towards Europe after all, Russia invaded in order to disrupt that process, annexing Crimea and establishing the two puppet republics in Luhansk and Donetsk. 

When Ukrainians speak of the current war, they do not speak of a conflict lasting just a few months, they see a direct line from 2014 to today. Their place in the EU and their identity as Europeans is precisely what they have been fighting for and what Russia has been seeking to deny. It is intimately tied to their hopes for real self-determination and a final break from Russian empire. 

For the EU to reply and say that Ukrainians are accepted and are welcomed - and as part of the family, not merely partners - is therefore of real symbolic importance for Ukraine and a key boost to popular morale. 

And if you're unconvinced, then don't take my word for it, just look at the government's massive diplomatic operation to secure EU candidate status in the first place. You don't sign your country's application to be part of the EU from the heart of a warzone if you think it's an unimportant sideshow. 

Second, there is the practical significance of this move. Earlier I mentioned that as part of the process to join the EU, Ukraine would need to undertake a number of reforms. This process includes incorporating the existing body of EU law (the acquis communautaire), essentially enabling a new member to smoothly slot into the Union from a legal perspective and hit the ground running. 

In so doing, Ukraine would become more and more like an EU state - using EU legal principles, adhering to EU standards and operating its economy like existing EU states. Becoming an EU member is exactly what is purports to be - more than simply adopting the norms of a liberal democracy, it means tying yourself further into the EU system and its laws, ready for the final moment when you gain the political representation to shape those laws yourself. During that time, economic and political ties between Ukraine and the EU will likely only grow as the two become more aligned. 

Ukraine gaining the status of an EU membership candidate is therefore the next step (following the Association Agreement) in bringing Ukraine into the European sphere. Long before becoming an EU member, Ukraine would be integrated further and further into the EU, erecting more barriers between itself and Russia (along with its pseudo rival to the EU, the Eurasian Economic Union). Assuming Ukraine sticks to this path, these are practical implications that will only make it harder for Russia to exercise leverage over Ukraine. A repeat of its past trade embargo plan could well be laughably irrelevant come the end of the decade. 

Becoming an official candidate for EU membership will not change Ukraine overnight, nor will it end the war. It is and will be a long and challenging journey. But with each step along that road Ukraine will get closer to the future it is fighting to preserve, strengthening its independence as it strengthens its place in Europe. We cannot be under any doubt that that counts for something - the Ukrainians certainly believe it does.